This story appeared on Network World at

http://www.networkworld.com/columnists/2006/101606bradner.html

What the 'Net is, and what some thought it would be

'Net Insider

By Scott Bradner, Network World, 10/16/06

The folks at the Pew Internet & American Life Project have been at it again. Within the last month they have released two short reports and a long one - all quite interesting. The most interesting, however, just might be a collection of decade-old predictions about where we were going to be today and tomorrow. I've written about the Pew Project in the past, last April and March.This project has been one of the best sources of information about who uses the Internet and what people have thought about the 'Net over the last few years.

The first short report (a .pdf file) documents the growing number of people who are using the Internet as a way to get information about political campaigns. On an average day in August, 26 million Americans - 13% of all Americans more than 18 years old - used the 'Net to get such information. Considering how few in the United States vote in off-year elections (42% in 2002), this could represent quite a significant percentage of actual voters.

The second short report (also a .pdf) struggles mightily to define just what "Web 2.0" means. It comes up short, not because the report is faulty, but because there is no crisp definition.

This report notes the majority of Internet users sent or read e-mail on a typical day in December 2005, more than used instant messaging, blogging and shopping combined. Seems old uses don't die as new ones come along.

The big report (a .pdf) is the second in the project's surveys of Internet-savvy folk about what they think is coming. The survey asked people to agree or disagree with possible scenarios for the Internet in 2020. Most of the respondents were split roughly evenly (the most extreme split was between the 58% who thought that future Luddites will commit anti-Internet acts of terror and the 35% who thought not). The differences do not seem strong enough to me to draw conclusions. There were stronger conclusions in a second set of questions about where development priorities should be set.

There was more support for building out network infrastructure and knowledge and for creating a legal environment that ensures open use of the network and software than there was for creating a micropayment system or an international security watchdog organization. The overall report is a good read, even if some of the answers are ambiguous.

Tucked away at the end of the survey is the part I found most interesting. It was in the form of a pointer to a collection of predictions made in the early 1990s about the future of the Internet.

Even though they do not include any of my predictions there are some interesting things: For an example, search for the keyword "encryption." This is great stuff. It is very instructive to look back at the predictions of experts in times of technology change; it teaches one not to trust experts (come to think of it, maybe they should not add any of my predictions, after all).

Disclaimer: In 370 years people at Harvard have expressed a zillion opinions and predictions, some of which also have been called Harvard's opinions - but not this one, because it's just mine.